Unemployment and the Phillips Curve

Unemployment – The Details

失业与菲利普斯曲线 失业–细节

The costs of unemployment 失业的代价

To a certain extent, these were covered in the topic called 'Macroeconomic objectives'. They are reproduced here in a little more detail.

在某种程度上，这些内容在 "宏观经济目标 "的专题中已经涵盖。这里再详细介绍一下。

1. Implications for government spending and taxation. High unemployment is expensive for the government and, therefore, for the taxpayer. For every unemployed person, there are two costs to the government. First, the unemployed worker will be entitled to benefit, and if he/she is young, or older but remains unemployed for a long period of time, he/she will be offered training under the 'New Deal'. Secondly, there is the less obvious cost of the loss of income tax revenues the worker would have paid in work. These workers would have been paying VAT as well through their purchases. Put together, some economists have estimated that the cost to taxpayers of each unemployed person is up to ￡9,000 a year. 对政府开支和税收的影响。高失业率对政府来说是昂贵的，因此对纳税人也是如此。对于每一个失业的人，政府都有两个成本。首先，失业工人将有权获得福利，如果他/她是年轻人，或年龄较大但长期失业，他/她将根据 "新政 "获得培训。其次，还有一个不太明显的成本，即工人在工作中本来要支付的所得税收入的损失。这些工人本来也会通过他们的购买来支付增值税。一些经济学家估计，每个失业者每年给纳税人带来的成本高达9,000英镑。
2. Economic cost to the economy as a whole. There is the cost to the whole economy in terms of wasted, unused resources. The existence of any idle resources means that the economy will be at a point within its production possibility frontier (PPF). 对整个经济的经济成本。整个经济的成本体现在浪费的、未使用的资源上。任何闲置资源的存在意味着经济将处于其生产可能性边界（PPF）内的某一点。
3. Social costs of unemployment. Unemployed workers (young men, in particular) may create other external costs in the economy, like crime for example. The governments of the 80s always dismissed the coincidence of rising crime figures and rising unemployment. Was it really a coincidence, given that many of the new unemployed were young school leavers with no experience in work? 失业的社会成本。失业工人（尤其是年轻男性）可能会在经济中产生其他外部成本，比如说犯罪。80年代的政府总是否定犯罪率上升和失业率上升这一巧合。鉴于许多新的失业者是没有工作经验的年轻离校生，这真的是一种巧合吗？
4. The cost of unemployment to the individual. In the short term the unemployed worker has to put up with the loss of earnings, although this may be balanced by redundancy payments. But in the long run, the long term unemployed will find it harder and harder to find a job, as they find that the skills they have become less relevant and they have had no new training. 失业对个人的代价。在短期内，失业者必须忍受收入的损失，尽管这可能被裁员付款所平衡。但从长远来看，长期失业者会发现越来越难找到工作，因为他们发现他们所拥有的技能变得不那么相关，而且他们没有接受过新的培训。

Types of unemployment and their causes 失业类型及其原因

Classical unemployment 经典的失业

This is unemployment that is caused by the real wage being higher than the equilibrium real wage. The following diagram should explain.

这是由实际工资高于均衡实际工资而造成的失业。下图应该可以解释。

If you cannot remember why the demand and supply curves for Labour look as they do, see the topic called 'Labour markets'. Classical economists (and their contemporary relatives, the neo-classical and monetarist economists) believe that the laws of supply and demand work in all markets, including labour markets. In the diagram above, they believe that the market will 'clear' at the equilibrium wage W1 giving a level of employment of L1.

如果你不记得为什么劳动力的需求和供应曲线是这样的，请看 "劳动力市场 "这一主题。古典经济学家（以及他们当代的亲戚，新古典主义和货币主义经济学家）认为，供应和需求的法则在所有市场上都起作用，包括劳动力市场。在上图中，他们认为市场将在均衡工资W1处 "清算"，提供L1的就业水平。

This equilibrium can be disrupted, though, through the action of, say, a trade union, or the imposition of a minimum wage by the government. In both cases, the real wage rate is likely to be forced above the equilibrium real wage to W2. At this higher real wage, the number of workers prepared to offer their labour services increases (to L2) but the demand for labour by the firms falls to L3. This means there will be L2 – L3 workers unemployed involuntarily.

但是，这种平衡可能会被打破，例如，通过工会的行动，或者政府实施的最低工资。在这两种情况下，实际工资率有可能被迫高于均衡的实际工资，达到W2。在这个较高的实际工资下，准备提供劳动服务的工人数量增加（到L2），但企业对劳动力的需求下降到L3。这意味着将有L2-L3的工人非自愿地失业。

It is important to distinguish between those that are involuntary unemployed and those that are voluntarily unemployed. Remember that the supply curve in the diagram above only gives the number of people who are willing and able to work at any given wage. Some people may be unemployed simply because they are looking for a better job (frictional unemployment – see later). These people are voluntarily unemployed.

区分非自愿失业者和自愿失业者是很重要的。请记住，上图中的供给曲线只给出了在任何特定工资下愿意并能够工作的人数。有些人可能仅仅是因为在寻找更好的工作而失业（摩擦性失业–见后文）。这些人是自愿失业的。

The solution to this problem of unemployment for classical economists, therefore, was to remove anything that distorts the labour market. The elimination of trade unions, any minimum wages or wage councils (who set wages at reasonable levels for the poor) would be suggested. In the UK, trade unions are now weaker than they were twenty years ago. The old wage councils were abolished in the 80s, but the Labour government has introduced the National Minimum Wage. Labour markets are now more flexible, so real wage rates will be more responsive to changes in the supply and demand for any particular sub-market. The real wage, therefore, is more likely to be at the equilibrium position.

因此，对于古典经济学家来说，解决这个失业问题的办法是消除任何扭曲劳动力市场的因素。建议取消工会、任何最低工资或工资委员会（为穷人设定合理的工资水平）。在英国，工会现在比二十年前更弱。旧的工资委员会在80年代被废除，但工党政府已经引入了全国最低工资。劳动力市场现在更加灵活，所以实际工资率将对任何特定子市场的供应和需求的变化做出更多反应。因此，实际工资更有可能处于均衡位置。

Keynesian unemployment (or demand deficient unemployment) 凯恩斯式失业（或需求不足式失业）

Keynesian economists, on the other hand, believed that unemployment was not just a question of the labour market being in disequilibria. Labour, after all, is a derived demand, derived from the demand for the good that is being produced. If there is a big fall in the demand for products in the goods market (during a recession, for example) then the demand for labour will fall causing unemployment.

另一方面，凯恩斯主义经济学家认为，失业不仅仅是劳动力市场处于不平衡状态的问题。劳动力毕竟是一种派生需求，源于对正在生产的商品的需求。如果商品市场对产品的需求大幅下降（例如，在经济衰退期间），那么对劳动力的需求就会下降，导致失业。

Using the same diagram as before, we see that the equilibrium wage is W1 giving a level of employment of L1. Keynesians now argue that in times of recession, the aggregate demand curve for the economy as a whole will shift to the left. This will cause the demand for labour curve to shift to the left as well (from DL1 to DL2). If the real wage rate stays at W1 then there will be L1 – L2 workers involuntarily unemployed.

使用与之前相同的图表，我们可以看到，均衡工资是W1，就业水平是L1。凯恩斯主义者现在认为，在经济衰退时期，整个经济的总需求曲线会向左移动。这将导致劳动力需求曲线也向左移动（从DL1到DL2）。如果实际工资率保持在W1，那么将有L1-L2的工人非自愿失业。

Of course, the classical economists would argue that the real wage rate would fall to the new equilibrium (wage W2, employment L3). The level of employment would fall (from L1 to L3) but there would be no involuntary unemployment. At the time of the 1930s depression, Keynes argued that this would not necessarily happen because wages and prices were 'sticky downwards'. Even if the real wage rate did fall, the lower incomes of the workers would lead to lower spending in the economy, a further reduction in aggregate demand and a further reduction in the demand for labour. When would it all end?

当然，古典经济学家会认为，实际工资率会下降到新的均衡状态（工资W2，就业L3）。就业水平会下降（从L1到L3），但不会出现非自愿失业。在20世纪30年代的大萧条时期，凯恩斯认为这不一定会发生，因为工资和价格是 "向下粘性 "的。即使实际工资率真的下降了，工人的收入减少也会导致经济中的支出减少，总需求进一步减少，对劳动力的需求进一步减少。这一切何时才能结束？

Frictional unemployment 摩擦性失业

As was mentioned earlier, frictional unemployment is voluntary unemployment for workers who are looking for a better job. This all sounds very trivial, but the numbers involved are quite significant. When you hear the monthly unemployment figures announced on the news (a fall by 20,000; a rise by 10,000; etc.) what you may not realise is that the monthly change is dwarfed by the actual inflows of workers into jobs and outflows of workers into unemployment. Some months these figures can be as high as 300,000!

如前所述，摩擦性失业是指正在寻找更好工作的工人的自愿失业。这一切听起来非常微不足道，但所涉及的数字却相当重要。当你听到新闻中宣布的每月失业数字（减少了2万；增加了1万；等等）时，你可能没有意识到，每月的变化与实际流入工作岗位的工人和流出失业的工人相比，相形见绌。有些月份，这些数字可能高达300,000!

The bigger the imperfections in the labour market, the longer will be this period of unemployment for each worker, and the higher the 'search' costs for the individual. Of course, the worker could take the first job that comes his way, but it is probably better, for the individual and the economy as a whole, if he takes some time to find the right job, so that he is more productive in that job.

劳动力市场的不完善程度越大，每个工人的失业期就越长，个人的 "搜寻 "成本就越高。当然，工人可以接受他的第一份工作，但对于个人和整个经济来说，如果他花一些时间找到合适的工作，使他在工作中更有生产力，那可能会更好。

Some argue that this 'search' can become rather too 'long term' if, for example, the Jobseekers Allowance is too high. If out of work benefits are high, the unemployed worker might be tempted not to bother with work at all. The replacement ratio would be too high (the size of the unemployment benefit as a percentage of in work disposable income). But if benefits are too low, newly unemployed workers might take the first job that comes along, which might not be the best use of his skills. The economy's resources would not be allocated efficiently.

有些人认为，这种 "寻找 "可能会变得过于 "长期"，例如，如果求职者津贴太高。如果失业津贴很高，失业工人可能会被诱惑，根本不愿意去工作。替代率会过高（失业津贴的规模占在职可支配收入的百分比）。但是，如果福利太低，新失业的工人可能会接受第一份出现的工作，这可能不是对他的技能的最佳利用。经济的资源就不会得到有效的分配。

Structural unemployment 结构性失业

Structural unemployment is so named because it is unemployment caused by changes in the structure of the economy. The huge shift away from manufacturing to the service sector over the last twenty to thirty years (often referred to as deindustrialisation) has caused structural unemployment to be the largest component of the total unemployment figures.

结构性失业之所以被称为结构性失业，是因为它是由经济结构的变化引起的失业。在过去的二三十年里，从制造业到服务业的巨大转变（通常被称为非工业化），导致结构性失业成为总失业数字的最大组成部分。

Imagine working as a shipbuilder all your life, and then, at the age of, say, 53 your dock closes and everyone is out of work. You have been trained, thoroughly, for one job, but what else can you do? Some of the skills will be transferable, but retraining will be required. Employers would rather take on an 18 year old – young, fresh and open to new ideas – rather than a 53 year old with pre-conceived ideas of how to do things.

想象一下，你一生都在从事造船工作，然后，在你53岁的时候，你的船坞关闭了，每个人都失业了。你已经为一项工作接受了全面的培训，但你还能做什么？有些技能是可以转移的，但需要重新培训。雇主宁愿雇用一个18岁的年轻人–年轻、新鲜、对新想法持开放态度–而不是一个53岁、对如何做事有先入为主想法的老人。

This was a common story throughout the 80s. A 53 year old man would often not get a job for a couple of years, and then it would be impossible to find work at the age of 55 with two years out of the market. He would spend the rest of his days up to retirement age (65) unemployed and virtually unemployable.

这是整个80年代的一个普遍现象。一个53岁的人往往会在几年内找不到工作，然后在55岁时不可能找到工作，有两年时间不在市场。他将在余下的日子里，直到退休年龄（65岁）都处于失业状态，几乎无法就业。

The problem of deindustrialisation would not be so bad if the expansion of the service sector creates enough jobs to employ those who lose their jobs in the manufacturing sector. This has happened to a certain extent, but the skills required in the service sector are often different to those required in the manufacturing sector. Occupational mobility has been improved through government training programmes, in particular, the 'New Deal' which helps the long term unemployed get back to work. Geographical mobility needs to be improved as well, through increased low cost housing for those who need to move to a more expensive area to get a job. Recent governments have not been quite so forthcoming with money to eradicate this problem. This may be because many people are reluctant to move from the area from which they came, regardless of financial inducements.

如果服务行业的扩张能创造足够的工作机会来雇佣那些在制造业中失去工作的人，那么非工业化的问题就不会那么糟糕。这在某种程度上已经发生了，但服务部门所需的技能往往与制造业所需的技能不同。通过政府的培训计划，特别是帮助长期失业者重返工作岗位的 "新政"，职业流动性得到了改善。地域流动性也需要改善，为那些需要搬到更昂贵的地区找工作的人提供更多低成本的住房。最近的政府并没有很好地提供资金来消除这个问题。这可能是因为许多人不愿意从他们来的地方搬走，不管有什么经济诱惑。

Technical unemployment 技术性失业

One can probably think of examples where 'technology' has put people out of work. A good recent example is the banking sector, where the introduction of phone and Internet banking has caused the big banks to close many of their traditional high street branches. Of course, it is not quite as simple as that.

人们可能会想到一些 "技术 "使人失业的例子。最近的一个很好的例子是银行业，电话和网络银行的引入导致大银行关闭了许多传统的高街分行。当然，事情并非如此简单。

If the improved technology reduces an industry's costs, and therefore prices, by a substantial amount, the increased demand for their product might involve an increase in employment. A substantial increase in output will require extra workers.

如果改进后的技术将一个行业的成本，也就是价格，大大降低，对其产品的需求增加，可能会涉及到就业的增加。产出的大幅增加将需要额外的工人。

There is, therefore, a trade off. If, following improved technology, the increase in workers required outweighs the losses due to the more efficient capital employed, then there will be a net increase in employment. Otherwise, unemployment will rise. One important factor will be the extent to which new technology improves the productivity of the capital involved relative to the improved labour productivity. If all the reduction in costs is down to some new super machine, then the amount of labour required will probably fall.

因此，存在着一种权衡。如果在技术改进之后，所需工人的增加超过了由于所使用的更有效的资本而造成的损失，那么就业就会出现净增加。否则，失业率就会上升。一个重要的因素是，相对于劳动生产率的提高，新技术在多大程度上提高了相关资本的生产率。如果所有成本的降低都归功于一些新的超级机器，那么所需的劳动力数量可能会下降。